Confido supports three interconnected forecasting methods that together give your team a complete picture of demand — from what consumers are buying off the shelf to what you need to ship to keep product available. This guide explains each method, when to use it, how to configure it in Confido, and how all three connect into a single source of truth.
1. Consumption Forecasting
What it is
Consumption forecasting uses point-of-sale (POS) or syndicated data to measure how much of your product consumers are actually purchasing off the shelf. This reflects true end-consumer demand at a SKU and retailer level, making it the most direct signal of how your business is performing at retail. Because it starts with what shoppers are buying, consumption forecasting is the most accurate foundation for growth-stage and scaling brands. It captures velocity changes, distribution expansions, and the lift from promotional activity — all of which can shift quickly in a competitive retail environment.
When to use it
You have POS or syndicated data available for the retail account.
You are forecasting for a major retail account (national grocery, mass, club, drug, etc.).
You want to capture promotional lift directly tied to your trade calendar.
You are launching a new item and need to model distribution-driven growth from store count projections.
Core components
A consumption forecast is built in three layers:
Layer 1 — Bottoms-Up Baseline |
The baseline is the volume you would expect to sell without any promotional activity. Best practice is to build this from two inputs:
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Layer 2 — Incremental Promotional Volume |
On top of the baseline, layer in the incremental volume expected from planned promotional activity — features, displays, price reductions, TPRs, and other vehicles. This lift should be tied directly to specific events in your trade calendar. In Confido, your Trade Promotion Management (TPM) calendar is directly connected to forecasting. Planned promotions automatically flow into your consumption forecast, so incremental volume is always tied to a specific event, retailer, and time window — no manual reconciliation required. |
Layer 3 — Opportunity Planning |
Strong forecasts account for potential upside that is not yet confirmed. In Confido, you can model opportunities in three ways:
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Where it lives in Confido
Consumption forecasting is managed in the Sales Forecasting module. You can find it under Planning > Sales Forecast in the left navigation.
Connect your syndicated or POS data source via Muffin or by uploading data files directly.
Build and edit your baseline by retailer and SKU. Confido provides AI-powered velocity recommendations that flag unexpected shifts in your historical data.
Promotional lift pulls automatically from your linked Trade Promotion Management calendar — changes to planned events update the forecast in real time.
Create multiple forecast versions and track them side by side.
2. Depletion Forecasting
What it is
Depletion forecasting uses data from your distribution partners — UNFI, KeHE, regional distributors, and others — to track shipments from the distributor to the retailer. Depletions represent product leaving distributor warehouses into the retail supply chain, making them a useful proxy for demand when direct consumer POS data is not available. Unlike consumption data, which shows what shoppers are scanning at checkout, depletion data shows what distributors are shipping out. The two are closely correlated for stable accounts, but depletions may run ahead of or behind consumption depending on retailer ordering patterns and inventory levels at the distributor.
When to use it
POS or syndicated data is not available for the retail account — common for specialty retailers, co-ops, foodservice, and small independent accounts.
You sell through a distributor and do not have visibility into what the distributor's customers are ordering at the SKU level.
You want to ensure that small or long-tail accounts are included in your total demand picture, even if you are not planning at the individual account level.
Handling long-tail accounts
A common challenge in depletion forecasting is the volume of small accounts that appear in distributor reports. Individually, these accounts are too small to plan for. Collectively, they can represent a meaningful portion of volume.
Best practice: the All Other bucket Group small accounts into an "All Other" bucket by distributor partner. Evaluate trends at the aggregate level to inform shipment planning. Confido supports this grouping natively, so you do not need to build separate tracking for each account. |
This approach avoids the operational complexity of planning at the individual account level while ensuring that no material volume is left unaccounted for in your total demand model.
Where it lives in Confido
Depletion data is incorporated within the Sales Forecasting module, as a supplemental data layer that sits alongside your consumption forecast. You can fid your Depletion Forecast by going to Sales Forecast > Depletions.
Connect your Depletion source via Muffin or by uploading data files directly.
Configure your "All Other" account groupings by distributor to aggregate long-tail volume.
3. Shipments Forecasting (Direct Order)
What it is
Shipments forecasting — sometimes called direct order forecasting — translates your demand picture (consumption + depletions) into a plan for how much product needs to be shipped, to which customers, and when. This is the forecast that drives your supply chain: production scheduling, inventory positioning, and warehouse planning all depend on it. Shipments forecasting is done at the Ship-To customer level — meaning the direct customer receiving the purchase order (a distributor, a retailer's DC, or a 3PL) — rather than the retail account level. This distinction matters because the same retail chain may receive product through multiple ship-to points.
When to use it
You have no consumption or depletion source for this customer
You need to translate demand into production and inventory requirements.
You are planning shipments to distributors or retail DCs and need to account for lead times and buy-in delays.
Understanding the buy-in delay
The most important adjustment in shipments forecasting is the buy-in delay — the lag between when a shipment leaves your warehouse and when that product is available on shelf for consumers to purchase. Consumption happens after shipment, so your shipments forecast must be timed in advance of expected consumption.
Example If there is an average 4-week lag between shipment and on-shelf availability:
Confido embeds this buy-in delay assumption directly into the shipments model so you do not need to manually adjust dates. You can adjust any given customer's buy-in delay in the forecast settings. |
Where it lives in Confido
Ship-to forecast is in the Forecast > Ship-to View.
The Ship-to forecast receives its demand signal directly from your Sales Forecast (consumption + depletion), so shipment projections are always anchored to real commercial inputs.
Configure buy-in delay assumptions at the customer or retailer level under Settings > Forecast Settings.
Shipment forecasts are generated at the Ship-To level, with drill-down by Planning Group by SKU and time period.
Operations teams can view and adjust shipment forecasts without accessing or altering the underlying consumption or trade planning data.
Confido's Ship-to forecast connects to your ERP and flows in actual shipment forecast based on invoices
Common mistake to avoid Managing shipments forecasting in isolation — disconnected from consumption data and trade plans — is the primary cause of supply planning errors. When operations does not have visibility into upcoming promotions or distribution changes, shipment forecasts miss. Confido prevents this by keeping all three methods connected in a single platform. |
4. Quick Reference: Which Method to Use
Use this table to quickly identify the right forecasting approach based on your scenario.
Scenario | Recommended Method | Data Source | Lives In Confido |
Retail accounts with POS/syndicated data available | Consumption Forecasting | POS or Syndicated Data | Sales Forecasting > Consumption |
Accounts without POS data (specialty, foodservice, small independents) | Depletion Forecasting | Distributor depletion reports (UNFI, KeHE, etc.) | Sales Forecasting > Depletions |
Demand Planning | Shipments (Direct Order) Forecasting | Consumption + Depletion outputs, ERP order history | Sales Forecasting >Ship-to |
New item launches with no historical data | Consumption Forecasting (bottoms-up baseline) + Opportunities | Comparable item benchmarks, distribution projections | Sales Forecasting > Consumption |
5. How the Three Methods Work Together in Confido
Each method captures a different layer of your business, and all three are most powerful when they are connected. In Confido, this connection is built in — you do not need to manually reconcile separate spreadsheets or export between systems.
Consumption | Depletion | Shipments
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What consumers buy at retail. Anchors the demand model to true end-market trends. | What distributors ship to retailers. Fills coverage gaps where POS data is unavailable. | What you ship to customers. |
The workflow is sequential: Consumption and Depletion forecasts are built and reviewed in the Sales Forecasting module, then fed directly into the Ship-to forecast as the demand signal for shipments. Trade promotion plans flow into consumption forecasts automatically, so a new promotion entered in your TPM calendar ripples through to your shipments plan without any manual steps.
This end-to-end connection is what eliminates the silo problem. Sales, Finance, and Operations are all working from the same numbers, with full visibility into where each figure comes from and how it was built.
Questions? If you need help setting up any of these modules or connecting your data sources, reach out to your Confido implementation manager or visit the Help Center at intercom.help/confidotech. |