For the 2025 Code Cycle (2026-2031)
To create the residential new construction forecasts for the new code cycle, the Cost-Effectiveness Explorer team took the following steps:
Calculated the CEC's expected growth rates for 2026 from Table 48 of the Single Family Buried Ducts CASE Results Report, and Table 53 of the Multifamily Indoor Air Quality CASE Results Report.
Multiplied the respective annual growth rates by the count of existing residential building data (all vintages, including estimated new construction from the past code cycle) estimated by the Cost-Effectiveness Explorer team for each jurisdiction and climate zone to get the expected number of new units to be constructed in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, and 2031. For information about the Explorer team’s existing residential building methodology, see here.
When users add their own annual growth rate assumptions, they are used in place of the statewide historical average described in step one.
This is a slight departure from the previous code cycle's methodology, outlined below, and was changed to streamline new construction forecast methodology across the Cost-Effectiveness Explorer.
For the 2022 Code Cycle (2023-2025)
To create the residential new construction forecasts, the Cost-Effectiveness Explorer team took the following steps:
Calculated the statewide historical average annual growth rate (2018-2021) for both single family and multifamily buildings (from the California Energy Commission's Preliminary California Energy Demand Forecast 2012-2022).
Multiplied the respective annual growth rates by the count of existing residential building data (all vintages) estimated by the Cost-Effectiveness Explorer team for each jursidiction and climate zone to get the expected number of new units to be constructed in 2023, 2024 and 2025. For information about the Explorer team’s existing residential building methodology, see here.
When users add their own annual growth rate assumptions, they are used in place of the statewide historical average described in step one.
