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2026 - Predict Program Size - Pro Forma User Guide

This guide will walk through how to create a pro forma financial model for a program.

Written by Alexis Brugler
Updated this week

1. To create a Pro Forma, use the dropdown menu at the top of your screen. Begin with Step 1: Create Pro Forma

2. You can navigate through the Pro Forma inputs by using the buttons at the top of each sheet.

Note: Each step of Pro Forma will navigate to the next one. You can also use the drop-down menu.

3. Start by selecting a program.

You can either search for a phrase or type in a CIP code.

4. Once you have found the program you would like to use, click on it to select it.

5. Select the predominant modality for your program.

Modality refers to the predominant modality. For example, if you select Online modality, it indicates that your program will be offered mostly online.
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​Note: Both modalities indicate that both an online and an on-ground option will be offered, not that this will be a hybrid program.

6. Once you choose a program and modality, the model will show you the Predict Program Size model output, both with a range and the most likely number of completions to use for your Pro Forma.

7. Next, select the intended program length in years. This will translate into the number of co-existing cohorts each year.

For example, if you choose 2 years, that means that there will be two cohorts enrolled at the same time.

8. Input the number of completions (at maturity) that you would like to use for the Pro Forma model.

Note: You have the option to input any number of completions that you would like to model with this Pro Forma.

9. Enter a Name for your Pro Forma.

10. Select an option to create a Pro Forma.

In this example, we will select Simple Pro Forma

11. Next, enter the retention rates for this program.

These retention rates could be based on your institution's historical rates, the target retention rates that you aim to achieve, or the minimum retention rates set by your program accreditor.
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If you are subscribed to the PES Economics and Outcomes module, you can find your historical retention rates by program and award level using that app.

Note: You will be prompted to zero out retention rates beyond your selected program length.

12. Based on the program size and retention rate you have entered, the model will provide an estimate for each cohort. Enter the values you would like to use.

The estimated cohort intake is calculated using your selected program size (see step 8), the retention rates (step 10), and growth rates derived from new program completion data since 2010.

13. Enter share of online or out-of-state students.

These splits will be used to calculate tuition later in the Pro Forma.

14. Click Save and See Enrollment Results.

15. To the right, you will see an enrollment summary.

16. Cohort 3 is the mature cohort; we plateaued intake growth beyond the third cohort.

Note: Students in the last year of each cohort are assumed to graduate.

Note: The number of graduates from the third cohort matches your input for the number of completions at maturity (selected in step 9).

17. Click Next Step to move on.

18. This is where you can enter information about the number of credits and tuition information for this program.

19. Input the expected average discount rate for students in this program.

Note: This discount rate should only include institutional scholarships and grants, not financial aid or outside grants.

If you are subscribed to the PES Economics and Outcomes module, you can find your historical discount rates by program and award level using that app.

20. You can also input information about other variable revenue, such as fees or state appropriations.

21. Click Save and See Revenue Results.

22. To the right of the screen, you will see a Revenue Summary.

23. Click next step to move on.

24. To input the expenses related to this program, start by entering the program director and admin salaries and benefits information.

If a program director manages multiple programs or has teaching responsibilities, you can use the Percent Allocated to Program Administration input to allocate the share of their compensation to administer this program.

25. Next, enter the costs required to create or modify courses that will be required to launch this program.

This could include the cost to hire an outside consultant to develop a curriculum or the release cost of using current faculty to develop these courses.

26. Next, enter the initial and annual marketing expenses associated with this program.

27. If you do not know your marketing costs, you can also use the marketing cost calculator to estimate what values you should input.

Note: this function is a calculator, and you will need to enter the calculated values into the Pro Forma.

28. Click to see the admin cost results for an Admin Cost Summary.

29. Click Next Step to move on to instructional costs.

30. Input Institution-Wide Metrics.

31. Enter the credits from new courses for each year of the program.

This will be used to calculate the instructional cost of the new courses for this program.

32. To understand the hiring needs related to this program, start by selecting if you intend to hire a new faculty member in year 0 (pre-launch) for this program.

33. If you select yes, that you do intend to hire new faculty pre-launch, you will be asked for information regarding the salary and expected full-time load for those new hires.

34. Next, set the Instructional Cost Per SCH.

35. You can filter for a size range or a sector to see the Average Cost per SCH for your selected program from Gray DI's Benchmarking data by clicking the magnifying glass to the right.

36. To filter the data, select from one of the dropdown menus.

37. Now, you'll see the benchmark value for instructional cost per SCH.

38. Click See Instructional Costs Results.

39. To the right of the screen, you will now see an Instructional Costs Summary.

40. Click Next Step to move on. This will save your Pro Forma.

41. Now that you have filled out the Pro Forma inputs, use the dropdown menu or buttons on the save page to view the output.

42. Your Saved Pro Forma can be found in your Pro Forma Inventory under the Pro Forma Financials drop-down.

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