Overview
Every Greenscreens rate prediction is accompanied by a Confidence Level. This is an AI-generated score to help identify the amount of work needed to find capacity at a specific price. It is not an indicator of rate accuracy, but is intended to take the guesswork out of how hard it will be to cover a load at the given price based on the current market conditions. Confidence Levels fall between 50 and 100.
Confidence Level Sources
The confidence number is primarily determined by three things:
Density of Historical Data
Confidence Levels tend to be higher on lanes where there is a larger quantity of historical data. The model takes into account both broker-specific data and data provided by the entire Greenscreens.ai network.Market Volatility
The model takes note of market fluctuations. It considers the rate at which truck rates change over time, both in frequency and magnitude. It also takes into account capacity supply and demand conditions in origin and destination market. A more stable market usually means a higher Confidence Level.Spread of Potential Outcomes
When the variance in historical prices is minimal, the model tends to be more confident in its predicted rate. Where prices fluctuate substantially, the model tends to be less confident, as it has a wider band of previous load data to consider.
Confidence Suggestions
Low Confidence (62% and below): We suggest doing one or more of these things:
Get multiple bids from carriers before accepting a price.
Consider starting negotiations with the Start Rate.
Review the Greenscreens Network Rate and compare its Confidence Level with that of the Target Buy Rate.
Give yourself additional lead time in booking the load.
Review the data shown by the Similar Lanes feature.
Add some additional margin to make sure you’re covered.
Medium Confidence (63% - 75%): We suggest getting multiple bids from carriers before accepting a price or adding some additional margin to be sure you're covered.
High Confidence (76% - 87%) & Very High Confidence (88% - 100%): A high or very high Confidence Level suggests that you can book now at the given rate.
Target Confidence vs Network Confidence
For every prediction, Greenscreens provides a Network Rate prediction and a Target Buy Rate prediction. The Network Rate prediction is produced by the network model, which uses our entire network's load data. The Target Buy Rate prediction is created by a model trained to predict a brokerage’s rates, based both on the brokerage’s data and data from Greenscreens’ entire network. Since the Network Rate prediction model draws on a different data set and is tuned to predict a different outcome from the Target Buy Rate model, Confidence Levels will vary between these two predictions.
The Network Rate Confidence Level is not specific to any one brokerage, but represents the likelihood that any brokerage within the GS Network will be able to buy a specific lane at a specific price.
If a brokerage has a smaller spread of truck rates on a given lane, with more volume consistency, the target model may produce a higher Confidence Level. If a brokerage has no historical volume on a lane (and the model was unable to rely on history from other brokerages that were deemed to be similar or other lanes that would be strongly correlated to the requested lane), where the network has a large quantity of historical volume, the Network Confidence will usually be higher.
Greenscreens recommends taking both Network and Target Buy Rate Confidence into consideration when deciding how to cover a specific lane.