When a price series does not have enough historical data to generate a reliable numerical forecast, Helios provides a Pricing Outlook instead.
Pricing Outlooks combine commodity market trends, historical price behavior, growing season timing, and climate-risk signals to estimate the general direction prices are likely to move.
Rather than predicting exact values, the outlook describes whether prices are expected to rise, fall, stabilize, or reach a seasonal high or low. This allows users to understand likely price movement even when full predictive modeling is not possible.
What Pricing Outlooks Can Tell You
With an outlook, Helios can indicate:
Whether prices are expected to move up or down
Whether prices are likely to remain stable
Whether the commodity is approaching a seasonal high or lowWhether climate conditions are likely to push prices higher or lower than normal
Pricing Outlook Definitions
Rising Prices: We expect prices to be rising at this point in time.
Falling Prices: We expect prices to be falling at this point in time.
Stable Prices: We expect prices to be stable at this point in time.
Seasonal low: We expect the price to be hitting it's seasonal low at this time.
Seasonal high: We expect the price to be hitting it's seasonal high at this time.
How Pricing Outlooks Appear in the Platform
The appearance of the Prices page changes slightly when outlooks replace numerical predictions. This applies at both the global and country levels.
Global Level: How to Identify a Pricing Outlook
You will see the following indicators:
Graph
The chart shows historical prices only.
There are no forecasted price values on the graph.
Table
The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year columns display phrases such as Rising Prices or Falling Prices instead of numerical percentage changes.
These cues indicate that Helios is providing directional insight rather than data-driven price predictions.
Country Level: How Pricing Outlooks Are Displayed
When only outlooks are available for a country price series:
Top Summary Box
Instead of numerical forecast metrics, the top of the page displays a 3-month Pricing Outlook summary.
Graph
Shows historical data only, with no forecast line.
The chart is filtered to display the past two years instead of the typical “past year + upcoming year” layout.
Table
Similar to global-level behavior, the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year columns show outlook phrases instead of numerical values.