Understanding Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value, or EV, is one of the most important concepts in betting. It measures the long-term profitability of a bet by comparing how often a bet is expected to win with what the odds pay when it does.
In simple terms, EV tells you whether a bet has a mathematical edge over the sportsbook.
A positive EV means the bet should be profitable over time. A negative EV means that even if the bet wins occasionally, it will lose money in the long run.
How LVLup Calculates EV
LVLup’s models calculate EV by blending historical and predictive data. The process includes:
Historical Hit Rates: How often a player has cleared or missed a given line in relevant games.
Model Projections: Forecasts that factor in opponent strength, usage rate, minutes, and game context.
Recent Trends: Adjustments based on short-term changes such as player form, lineup shifts, or team performance.
Odds Comparison: Measuring the difference between the true probability from LVLup’s model and the sportsbook’s listed odds.
If a player has a true 50% chance to go over 24.5 points, but the odds suggest only a 33% chance, that bet has positive EV. The gap between true probability and sportsbook probability is your edge.
The simplest way to think about this is a weighted coin flip. Imagine a coin that lands on heads 50% of the time but every time it lands heads, you get 3x your money. Tails means you lose your stake.
You might lose after 4 or 5 flips, but if you flip that coin thousands of times, you’d almost certainly come out ahead. Positive EV works the same way: the value shows up over many repetitions, not a handful of bets.
What is Value Betting
Value betting is the practice of finding and taking advantage of these edges. Instead of focusing on who is likely to win, a value bettor looks for situations where the odds are inaccurate.
LVLup’s approach is built on this philosophy. We highlight bets where the data shows inefficiency, which often occurs in longer odds or less popular markets. These bets are placed less frequently, which increases the chance of finding errors in pricing.
By targeting these mispriced opportunities, LVLup helps users identify bets that have consistent positive EV and are more likely to be profitable in the long run.
Why EV and Value Betting Matter
Most bettors focus on winning individual bets. Smart bettors focus on making bets with long-term value. When you consistently place bets with positive EV, your advantage compounds over time. This is the foundation of sustainable and data-driven betting.
Every recommendation you see in LVLup is grounded in EV, helping you make confident decisions supported by clear data rather than emotion.