Value Betting Strategies

Value betting is a strategy that focuses on finding bets where the odds offered by the sportsbook are higher than the true probability of the outcome. This difference creates what is called positive expected value (EV) or edge.

If you consistently place bets with positive EV, you will earn profit over time even though you will not win every individual bet. Value betting is about long-term discipline and statistical advantage, not luck or hot streaks.

Understand the Market Odds
​Sportsbooks build odds that include their own margin, known as the vig. This margin means that most lines slightly underpay compared to true probability. Value exists when the market misprices a specific outcome.

Compare Probability and Odds
​Convert the odds into implied probability, then compare that to the actual probability from your model or data source.

Use LVLup’s Tools
​LVLup calculates EV automatically by comparing its internal probability models to live sportsbook lines.

A common mistake is focusing on how often a bet wins instead of whether it is priced correctly. A bet that wins 60 percent of the time can still lose money if the odds are too low. Conversely, a bet that wins only 20 percent of the time can be profitable if the payout is high enough.

The goal is not to be right more often. The goal is to be paid more when you are right. That is what drives long-term profit.

We at LVLup have found that value betting typically has the best results with bets that are higher odds and less likely to win often. Said differently, we have found the biggest opportunities and mis-pricings to occur at higher odds.