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Revenue Waterfall and Forecast

Understand how NextStage visualizes bookings and forecasted revenue

Written by Josh Chua
Updated over a month ago

The Revenue Waterfall and Forecast chart provides a time-based view of both awarded revenue and projected future revenue. This visualization helps teams understand when revenue is expected to land and how forecasted pipeline contributes to future performance.

Each bar in the chart represents the total revenue associated with a specific period of performance (PoP), displayed by month or quarter depending on the selected zoom level.


Overview

The Waterfall chart combines two types of revenue:

Revenue Type

Definition

Won Revenue

Revenue from opportunities whose status is Won or Awarded. This represents confirmed bookings.

Forecasted Revenue

Probability-weighted revenue from opportunities that are Open or Submitted but not yet awarded.

This provides a complete view of both secured revenue and projected pipeline contribution.


How to Use the Waterfall Chart

View revenue details

Hover over any bar to see:

  • Total revenue for the period

  • Number of contributing opportunities

  • Top contributing opportunities

This helps identify which pursuits are driving revenue in each time period.

Drill down into revenue contributors

Click on any bar to view a detailed breakdown of:

  • Individual opportunities contributing to that period

  • Revenue allocation per opportunity

  • Contribution to total forecast or bookings

This allows capture managers and leadership to validate forecast assumptions.


Opportunity Eligibility

An opportunity must contain sufficient data to calculate revenue allocation in order to appear in the Waterfall and Forecast chart.

Opportunities are excluded if required revenue calculation fields are missing.

Important:
Opportunities with an award date in the past are excluded from forecast calculations and only contribute to Won Revenue.


Required Opportunity Fields

The following fields are required for an opportunity to be included:

Field

Purpose

Contract Start Date

Defines the beginning of the period of performance

Contract End Date

Defines the end of the period of performance

Estimated Contract Value

Determines the total revenue to be allocated across the contract duration

These fields allow NextStage to accurately calculate and distribute revenue over time.


Automatic Period of Performance Estimation

If Contract Start Date and Contract End Date are not explicitly defined, NextStage will estimate the Period of Performance using available data.

Example

If an opportunity has:

  • An Award Date

  • A Contract Term (in months)

But does not have Contract Start Date or End Date, NextStage will automatically estimate:

  • Contract Start Date = Award Date

  • Contract End Date = Award Date plus Contract Term

This ensures the opportunity can still be included in revenue forecasting.


How Revenue and Forecast Are Calculated

NextStage calculates revenue allocation using the following methodology:

Step 1: Determine Period of Performance

NextStage identifies the full contract duration using:

  • Contract Start Date and Contract End Date
    or

  • Award Date and Contract Term


Step 2: Distribute Revenue Across Time

The Estimated Contract Value is evenly distributed across each month of the Period of Performance.

Revenue is prorated when necessary for partial months at the beginning or end of the contract.


Step 3: Apply Win Probability

For opportunities that are not yet Won, NextStage applies the opportunity’s win probability (Pwin).

This produces a probability-weighted forecast value.

Example:

  • Estimated Contract Value: $1,000,000

  • Win Probability: 50%

  • Forecasted Revenue Contribution: $500,000


Step 4: Aggregate Revenue by Time Period

Revenue is aggregated and displayed by:

  • Month
    or

  • Quarter (depending on zoom level)

The dashboard can also display data using:

  • Calendar year
    or

  • Fiscal year settings


Why This Matters

The Revenue Waterfall and Forecast helps teams:

  • Understand when revenue is expected to land

  • Validate pipeline forecast accuracy

  • Identify revenue gaps

  • Support executive pipeline reviews

  • Improve capture planning and prioritization

This visualization provides a clear, data-driven view of both secured revenue and future pipeline contribution.

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