RotoWire Picks Tool: Overview + Best Practices

Our RotoWire Picks tool covers several of the biggest operators in the business and sports.

On the surface, this is quite simple. The prop for Aaron Judge is 1.5 total bases. The blue indicates more, or over. The further the horizontal bars go to the right, the more that category favors the over. DFS Pick'em Sites, Sportsbooks, RotoWire Projection, and Hit Rate are the main data points we use to determine if you should lean more or less, and how much, on a specific prop. The bar on the left that runs vertically with the arrow, is a representation of those four data points. The higher it goes, the greater overall confidence in that prop.

All signals point to this being a solid prop to place an over on.

To go deeper than the surface, we can click on Aaron Judge’s name, and open up more information,

As you can see, we get the latest news piece on Judge at the top, then we once again see those four main factors we use to determine which way we’re leaning on the prop and how confident we are about it.

Here though, we can dive deeper into why our lean is what it is. As seen, other DFS Pick‘em sites and the sportsbooks also have Judge at 1.5 total bases, so there is no edge offered there from the 1.5 prop that Prizepicks is offering. That helps explain why the bars in those two categories are very close to the center. The only reason it is slightly to the right is at some point Sleeper, Bet MGM, and Caesars altered their line.

Next, you will see RotoWire’s projection, which at this time is 2.49 total bases for Aaron Judge, one whole more than the prop line. Due to the significant difference, that is why the bar goes so far to the right.

Then there is the hit rate and there is a lot of potential information you can digest here. Again, on the surface, Judge’s weighted hit rate for the prop, or how frequently he has gone over 1.5 total bases, is 78% over the last 20 games. Since Judge has been able to exceed 1.5 total bases so frequently, that explains why that bar was also so far to the right up above.

However, there are other things to be considered here. Like, since last season Judge has only done this 54% of the time as a whole, or 58% of the time against the Orioles.

Also, if you click “Away” you’ll see he only reaches the over on 1.5 total bases 53% of the time on the road. This is significantly less than what he has done just as of late.

Considering the 1.5 line Prizepicks is offering offers no advantage over other sportsbooks or pick‘em sites, and over the long run, Judge only hits the over on this prop a little over half the time, it isn’t anywhere near a sure thing. Really, the only major factor that would suggest you should pick the over here is our own projection, which is why ultimately the line and arrow on the left here are not overly high, although, due to our projection, it’s still leaning fairly confidently.

To use another example of an even better prop as far as overs, we can use Aaron Gordon, with the prop line of 13.5 points on Underdog. We can already see the bar running vertically on the left is slightly higher than Aaron Judge’s just above, and although none of the horizontal bars in the four factors we use are as far right as Judge’s RotoWire projection, we do have a greater extension of the other bars.

Like with Judge, after clicking on Gordon’s name we can get some further details as to how those bars end up where they are.

The first noticeable thing, unlike Judge, we have varying prop lines between the pick ‘em sites and sportsbooks with Gordon, which explains the lengthier bars. Pick 6 has Gordn set at 14.5 points on the pick‘em side of things, while Hard Rock, Draftkings, Caesar’s, and BetMGM all do as well on the Sportsbook side.

This would suggest that at 13.5, we’re getting a nice advantage over what other books are offering, and Underdog may be going too low here.

We can also see that we’re projecting him for 15.62 points, which is not as significant of a difference as we had with Judge from a percentage perspective, but still two whole points more than the 13.5 prop.

Going further down and looking at the weighted hit rate, we see very similar things that we did with Judge.

Although there are arguably some of the same concerns, as far as him only hitting that prop 52% of the time this season, and 55% of the time since last season, there is some different context here. Considering this is a playoff matchup, and they’ll be playing the Clippers, as they have the previous five games, we can put a lot more faith into the recent data.

So, although we should feel comfortable taking the over on Judge’s 1.5 total bases, the over of 13.5 points for Aaron Gordon is an even better option.

In fact, in the time since that prop became available, in less than 24 hours, Underdog has shifted to a 14.5 line, as have other sportsbooks, and we can see his bars for Pick’em sites and Sportsbooks have gone to the left, and his arrowed bar on the left has decreased significantly.

Here it is again, to compare. You can also see the hit rate has lowered, as the prop total is now higher.

This is a great example of how this tool can be useful to spot advantages before books adjust, and sometimes the importance of being able to jump on good props before the books tweak their lines. Instead of jumping from site to site, you can see them all in one place, in the Picks tool with RotoWire, and be able to compare lines across the industry.

Now, let’s take a look at the other end of the spectrum.

We have a prop for 37.5 Points+Assists for Nikola Jokic. Firstly, you'll notice that the bars here are in red, suggesting less. There is a good amount of bar movement to the left and a reasonable descending vertical bar to the left.

After clicking his name, we can get a closer look at what is populating those data points. Firstly, we can see that Pick 6 and Sleeper have a lower over/under of 36.5 in the pick’em section, while everyone but Fanduel has a lower prop in the sportsbooks.

We can also see that our projection of 31.59 is well below the prop line of 37.5

This would suggest, that even if you disagreed with our projection, and felt good about Jokic going over, you're much better off putting your money elsewhere, where the line is 36.5. However, if you do want to go with the under, as the tool suggests, you want to do it on the sites that have the prop line at 37.5.

As you can see below, when switching to Sleeper as a prop source, since they're at 36.5, we're at least getting the blue bars and movement to the right for Pick'em Sites and Sportsbooks, with a much shorter vertical bar.

The last factor is, of course, the hit rate. We can see that despite hitting this number 60% of the time over the regular season, it's been a struggle to do so in the playoffs, hitting the mark just 40% of the time in the series so far.

All of this adds up to a fairly confident bet that Jokic will hit the under, while also highlighting the best place to make that bet based on the varying lines of the sportsbooks.

What factors do you consider when recommending picks?

These are the prediction factors we use to rank the possible options for ALL picks:

Sportsbooks

This factor looks at the sportsbooks' lines for the player. Ex. If the player's line is 44.5 and sportsbooks have the line at 50.5, that's a possible indicator that the site's line may be set too low. So in that scenario, we'd put the Sportsbooks score at +100 (strong lean MORE). If the sportsbooks were only at 45.0, then we'd still rate it as leaning MORE, but not as strongly.

DFS Pick'em Sites

This factor works the same way as the sportsbooks, but instead of looking at the lines at sportsbooks, we focus on the lines on sites like Underdog, DraftKings' Pick6, Sleeper, and RTSports which are running the same type of games as PrizePicks.

RotoWire Projection

This factor takes the RotoWire projection for a player and compares it against the player's line. Ex. if the player's line is 87.5 and the RotoWire projection is something like 70.5, then we'd rate this factor as -100 (strong lean LESS) because we project them to not meet expectations. If the projection was something like 99.5, then we'd rate this factor as +100 (strong lean MORE) because expect them to exceed expectations.

Hit Rate

The hit rate is the percentage of games when the player has met or exceeded the current line. If a player has "hit" the Sportsbook line 50% of the time, then we'd give this factor a score of 0 (no lean). If they've hit the line 95% of the time, we would score this factor with a +100 (strong lean MORE). And if they've hit the line 5% of the time, we'd likely score it with -100 (strong lean LESS). We combine these four factors to generate a score for each possible play. The score ranges from -100 (strong lean toward LESS) to +100 (strong lean toward MORE).

How much should I trust these picks?

The picks on this page are the result of an automated system. While we think it's a system that makes sense, it's imperfect and doesn't always have the full context of a situation. We recommend that you use these picks as a starting point for your own research. If you disagree with a pick, you should trust your own judgment. Do not blindly follow these picks and expect to have a consistently good experience.

What does the hit rate mean?

The hit rate is the percentage of games when the player has met or exceeded the current line. We calculate the hit rate over various periods like the last 5 games, the last 10, the last 20, this season, last season, and versus the current opponent (for the player's career). To score the hit rate factor, we use a weighted hit rate. This weighted hit rate covers the last 20 games but the most recent games are given more importance. This gives you a larger sample size while still acknowledging that the player's performance in recent games is more predictive.

Why are some players missing?

We're reliant on the data that we get from DFS Pick'em Sites and sportsbooks so there are times when we do not have access to the full set of lines. Sometimes there's an incomplete player list or data is temporarily unavailable. We do our best to work around these issues, but sometimes it's not possible. The data is also not real-time. There can be a delay between a line showing up on DFS Pick'em Sites or sportsbooks and it being listed on this page. Sometimes it's just a matter of waiting a minute or two for the data to catch up.

Can I export all this data to a spreadsheet?

Yes, we've put a lot of effort into making it easy to export data in a useful way. If you go to the Research tab near the top of the page, you'll see our table view of all the available data. At the bottom of the table, there's a button that will export the visible data to a CSV file that you can open in Excel, Google Sheets, or any other spreadsheet program.

Please note that the table view is fully customizable as far as which columns you want to see (click the Add Custom View button) and how you want to sort the data.

When you export the data, the exported data will match what you see in the table. The only exceptions are that we make adjustments to some columns to make them more useful in a spreadsheet format.

I just want to compare the line to the RotoWire projection. Is that possible?

If you go to the Research tab near the top of the page, you'll see our table view of all the available data. Above the table, you'll find buttons for different views. Click the "RW Projections" button to see a view that isolates the difference between the line and our projection.

The RotoWire projection leans MORE, but you're recommending LESS. Why?

Our system uses the RotoWire projection as one of the prediction factors, but it's not the only factor. If the other factors are strong enough, they can outweigh the RotoWire projection and cause us to lean in the opposite direction. When evaluating the picks, you should consider the RotoWire projection as one piece of the puzzle, but a piece that is not always the most important.

Why are there multiple site icons below the line for each pick?

Some of the picks have the exact same line from multiple sites. If you see multiple site icons below a line, that means the line for this pick is the same across those sites.

How often do you update your data?

Most data is updated every 2 minutes and that includes the lines on the DFS Pick'em Sites. The lines from the sportsbooks are updated every 30 minutes.

Sites We Cover:

PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, Sleeper, FanDuel, Draftkings, BetMGM, BetRivers, RTSports, Hard Rock, Caesars

Sports We Cover:

NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, CFB, CBB, PGA, WNBA, Soccer, MMA, CS2, DOTA2, Valorant, Call of Duty