Monero (XMR) Confirmations: Recent Volatility & Updated Network Requirements
Monero's security model relies on block confirmations to ensure that transactions are final. While 10 confirmations were historically sufficient, recent unprecedented market activity in January 2026 has led us to increase the safety threshold.
Currently, all Monero (XMR) transactions require a minimum of 25 confirmations to be processed. This change is a direct response to extreme volatility and specific network pressures observed over the last two weeks.
🧩 What’s Happening in January 2026?
The Monero network is currently navigating a period of high intensity due to several factors:
Massive Capital Influx ($282M Incident): Following a major security breach on January 10, over $282M in stolen BTC and LTC began flowing into the Monero ecosystem. This sudden surge in volume has put significant pressure on liquidity providers and network nodes.
All-Time High Volatility: On January 14, XMR reached a record ATH of $798, followed by a sharp 28% correction. Such rapid price swings increase the risk of "chain splits" and double-spending attempts.
Regulatory Shifts: The recent ban on anonymity-enhanced tokens by Dubai’s VARA (effective Jan 12) has caused shifts in global XMR liquidity, making extra confirmations necessary to ensure transaction finality across different regions.
🧨 Historical & Technical Risks
In addition to current market events, we maintain higher confirmation requirements due to structural risks:
Deep Reorganizations (Reorgs): The memory of the 18-block reorg in late 2025 remains a primary reason for caution. A reorg of that depth can invalidate "confirmed" transactions; the 25-block rule ensures your funds are never caught in a rollback.
Hashrate Concentration: With reports of significant hashrate fluctuations, the 25-block threshold provides a "buffer" that makes it economically and technically unfeasible for any actor to reverse a transaction.
🧠 The Path Forward: Seraphis & FCMP++
The Monero community is actively working on long-term solutions. The upcoming Seraphis upgrade (currently in Stressnet testing) will increase anonymity sets from 16 to 128+ and introduce Jamtis addresses, significantly improving network resilience against the kind of hashrate fluctuations seen this month.
🧭 What This Means For You
Estimated Wait Time: Expect your XMR swap or deposit to take between 45 and 75 minutes.
Safety First: We do not "speed up" XMR transactions because your financial safety is our priority. A transaction is only permanent when it is deep enough in the blockchain.
No Action Required: Your wallet will sync as usual. Once the 25th block is mined, our system will automatically complete your exchange.
🤝 Support
If your transaction has not moved to "Completed" status after 25 confirmations (approx. 1 hour), please get in touch with our support team with your Exchange ID and TXID.
Given the current network load and the aftermath of the $282M conversion event, some explorers may show slight delays. Rest assured, your funds are safe and being processed according to the latest safety standards!