Your running data from the last 90 days need to meet the following requirements:
You must have:
A valid racecourse uploaded via PowerCenter
At least 1 workout conducted around your Critical Power
At least 1 workout conducted around the intensity for your target race distance
An accurate Model Curve on your Power Duration Curve that extends from the 10-minute duration to the 20-minute duration.
Note: This means that you must have a well-balanced Power Duration Curve and max efforts around the 10 to 20-minute duration. For example, a max effort in the 7-minute duration would be effective in modeling your 10-minute duration and a 25-minute activity would be effective in modeling your 20-minute duration. Alternatively, a max effort in the 15-minute range may also effectively model your capability from the 10 to 20-minute duration.
Have an accurate Critical Power
Note: If you use auto-calculated Critical Power, your auto-calculated Critical Power likely will be accurate if you meet requirement #3 by having a maximum effort near the 10-minute duration and the 20-minute duration.