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We've Changed Our Projections
We've Changed Our Projections
Ryan avatar
Written by Ryan
Updated over a week ago

We’ve recently updated the way we project how your money could grow. This change may have an effect on the status of your goal.

Why have we made the change?

By improving the way we make the calculations to the projections in the app, we believe that these changes will give you more accurate projections of how your investments could perform.

What has changed?

Nosso is now using an asset model which looks at the distribution of investment returns from thousands of economic scenarios. The model employs a random sampling methodology (known as Monte Carlo) to produce thousands of realistic scenarios.

We look at every asset class inside your investments (UK equity, US equity, Bonds, cash etc) and produce thousands of different, realistic scenarios. Based on these we come up with an expected return for each asset class. We then map this expected return for each asset class to your specific portfolio and take away any charges such as platform fees and fund charges. We then rank all the scenarios and select the 50th percentile (the halfway point) as the “Expected Outcome” for your specific portfolio.

You’ll also see that we’ve added Low Projection and a High Projection. The Low Projection is when markets perform poorly and to calculate this number we’ve selected the 5th percentile. This means in 95% of all the possible scenarios you’ll have at least this amount. The High Projection is when markets perform great and to calculate this number we’ve selected the 95th percentile. This means in 5% of all the possible scenarios, you’ll have at least this amount.

What does it mean for me?

Your investments are still exactly what you selected, the only thing that’s changed is how we calculate the projections. By updating these projections you may notice that some of your goals have changed status from “On-track” to “Stretch” or “Difficult”. This will happen in cases where our new projections assume a lower growth rate than our old ones.

As these are just projections (and not a perfect prediction or a guarantee of future performance), you can choose to do what you want with this extra information. You can leave your goal and target unchanged or you can update your goal target, or monthly contributions to make sure you stay on track. What you decide to do is entirely up to you.

We hope this extra information allows you to make the best decisions for your children based on how much risk you’re happy to take when trying to reach your goal.

And remember, this change doesn’t affect your investments at all, or the historical and current performance of them. If you have any questions about this change, just message us in app or email us at

Don't forget, when you invest your money is at risk. You might end up with more than you put in - or you might end up with less. Remember, past performance doesn’t guarantee how well an investment will do in the future. The performance is not subject to Nosso’s fees which once charged would reduce the return you received.

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