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Understand how demand, daily use, and monthly use forecast alerts are calculated
Understand how forecasts are calculated in Trend Analysis
Overview
Forecasts are ongoing data sets that reflect expected consumption based on a building's profile and historic usage.
In the Alerts app, you can configure different conditions that will trigger an email notification—including when a forecasted value has been exceeded by a certain amount.
Above: An alert for a point whose condition is 'Rate exceeds forecast by'.
Demand forecast alerts
The demand forecast at any given time is the average demand for the same day and time of the week over the last 4 weeks, depending on the resolution of the point (15-minute, hourly, daily). If demand for the current period exceeds the forecast by the specified percentage at any time, then the alert will be triggered.
In the alert configuration form, make the following selections:
Field | Instructions |
Condition | Select 'Rate exceeds forecast by' or 'Production exceeds forecast by'. |
% | Enter a percent value. |
Example
If the current time is Monday at 9:00 AM and the selected point has a 15-minute resolution, the demand forecast would be the average of demand for the last four Mondays from 9:00-9:15 AM.
Daily use forecast alerts
The daily forecast on a given day is the average daily consumption for the same day of the week over the last 4 weeks. If daily consumption exceeds the forecast by the specified percentage at any time, then the alert will be triggered.
In the alert configuration form, make the following selections:
Field | Instructions |
Condition | Select 'Total daily consumption exceeds forecast by' or 'Total daily production exceeds forecast by'. |
% | Enter a percent value. |
Example
If today is Monday, the daily use forecast would be the average of daily consumption for the last four Mondays.
Monthly use forecast alerts
The monthly forecast for a given month is the average monthly consumption for the same month over the last 4 years. If monthly consumption exceeds the forecast by the specified percentage at any time, then the alert will be triggered.
In the alert configuration form, make the following selections:
Field | Instructions |
Condition | Select 'Total monthly consumption exceeds forecast by' or 'Total monthly production exceeds forecast by'. |
% | Enter a percent value. |
Example
If the current month is August 2019, the monthly use forecast would be the average of monthly consumption for August 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. If any historical data are missing, then the forecast calculation will only consider the data that are available.
Trend Analysis forecasts
Forecasts can be viewed in Trend Analysis via the “compared to” dropdown menu:
Hourly (or 15-minute) forecasts: The forecast for each time interval is the average usage for the same day and time of the week over the last 4 weeks.
Daily forecasts: The forecast for each day is the average usage for the same day of the week over the last 4 weeks.
Monthly forecasts: The forecast for each month is the average usage for the same month over the last 4 years.
Note that Trend Analysis "interpolates" values to render a smooth curve between points.
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