Standard break-even ACOS calculations only account for the first purchase. For CPG brands, this leads to systematically under-investing in acquisition — because it ignores the profit you'll make on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th orders that follow. The Break-Even ACOS page in MRP recalculates your target ACOS using actual repeat purchase data, not assumptions.
How the calculation works
MRP calculates break-even ACOS across four time horizons — 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months — based on:
Your average sale price (last 30 days)
Your average profit per unit before advertising (uses your entered COGS)
Your actual LTV multiplier from cohort data (how many units the average customer buys within each window)
Step-by-step
Go to Advanced Tools → LTV & Subscriptions → Break-Even ACOS
Find your product in the table. You'll see: average sale price, average profit/unit (excluding ads), and break-even ACOS for 1M / 3M / 6M / 12M
Look at the Payback Period column — this shows how many months it takes to recoup your advertising investment based on your current ACOS vs. each break-even threshold
Share this page with your PPC manager or agency with a clear brief: "We're comfortable with up to X% ACOS if the payback period is within 6 months"
Reading the numbers: a worked example
If your average profit per unit (before ads) is $10 and your customers buy an average of 3.5 times within 12 months, here's what your break-even ACOS looks like across each window:
Payback window | What it means | Break-even ACOS (example) |
1 month | Profitable from the first order alone | ~62% |
3 months | Recoup investment within one quarter | ~92% |
6 months | Recoup within half a year | ~126% |
12 months | Recoup within a full year of repeat orders | ~185% |
The key decision is: how long are you willing to wait to recover your acquisition cost? For brands with strong retention and healthy cash flow, a 3-month payback window on acquisition campaigns is often the right target.
⚠️ Important: only scale where market share isn't maxed
A high LTV-adjusted ACOS target only makes sense on keywords where your market share is not already maximised. Increasing spend on fully captured keywords won't bring in new customers — it will just cost more to keep the same ones. Always cross-reference with Market Share & Funnel before scaling spend on any keyword.
💡 Tip — exclude branded terms before reading this report
Your branded ACOS is artificially low and your branded LTV overstates the acquisition value (branded customers were likely going to find you anyway). Apply the brand-name exclusion filter — set "search term does not contain [your brand name]" — before drawing conclusions about LTV-based ACOS targets for growth campaigns.
How to act on the payback period column
Payback period = 1–2 months: Strong case for scaling acquisition spend aggressively
Payback period = 3–6 months: You can grow if cash flow allows — worth pushing on high-opportunity keywords
Payback period > 6 months: You are close to maximizing your investment capability. Review your first-order acquisition and invest in retention instead: retargeting, Brand Tailored Promotions, launch additional variations, etc.
Once you've set your ACOS target, share the Break-Even ACOS table directly with your PPC team or agency. It gives them a data-backed ceiling to work within — and removes the guesswork from budget decisions.