Quick Summary: Automatically regenerated monthly forecasts may require intervention to address unanticipated demand factors. Adjust, freeze, defrost, and update forecasts at macro and item levels to influence safety stock and order recommendations with precision.
Why It Matters
While the app’s automated forecasts are designed to be accurate without intervention, there will always be times when manual adjustments are needed, for example to respond to market changes, planned promotions, or other unusual events.
Knowing when and how to adjust a forecast ensures that Recommended Order Quantities (ROQs) and safety stock calculations are based on the most current and relevant data, preventing both stockouts and excess inventory.
When to Adjust a Forecast
Manual forecast intervention is typically required in the following scenarios:
Sudden Change in Sales Patterns
When sales patterns change suddenly and you have reason to believe this change will be sustained (e.g., a new competitor enters or leaves the market).
Planned Business Events
Promotions, planned product launches, or a sudden change in season that requires a short-term uplift or reduction in forecasted demand.
New Market Intelligence
When you gain new information that the system doesn't have, such as acquiring or losing a major customer, or being aware of upcoming supply constraints.
Persistent Variance
When you notice that actual demand consistently differs from the forecast over several months.
➜ For more on this topic, read: Forecasts That Need Attention Explained
What Changes After an Adjustment
A forecast adjustment triggers updates across several key calculation areas:
Area | Effect |
Policies | Lead Time, Safety Stock, and Replenishment Cycle values convert from days to units based on the revised forecast. |
Ordering levels | Minimum and order-up-to levels are recalculated using the adjusted forecast. |
Cover Forward period demand | The total for Lead Time + Safety Stock + Replenishment Cycle (days) is converted to units using the new forecast. |
Recommended Order | ROQs are refreshed to reflect updated demand expectations. |
Stock status | A change in forecast may alter the item’s stock status (for example, from OK to potential stockout). |
Safety Stock days | Safety Stock days update after the next forecast run if the Future Weight setting is enabled. |
Key Insight: Adjusting the forecast is not a cosmetic change; it redefines the mathematical base used in all replenishment calculations.
Macro vs. Item-Level Adjustments
Netstock provides two methods for adjusting forecasts, depending on the scope of the changes you need to make.
Macro-Level Adjustments
What it is: A single percentage adjustment applied across a group of items (for example, by supplier, product class, or category).
When to use it: Ideal for broad, top-down changes affecting multiple items in the same way, such as an expected increase in category-wide demand.
How to do it: Use the Forecast Adjustment screen to select the group and apply a percentage increase or decrease.
➜ For more on this topic, read: How To: Adjust Forecasts at Macro/Group Level
Item-Level Adjustments
What it is: A precise adjustment for an individual item at a specific location.
When to use it: Best for targeted, granular changes, such as correcting a one-off anomaly or adjusting for a promotion on a single item.
How to do it: Edit the forecast directly on the Forecast tab of the item’s Inquiry screen.
➜ For more on this topic, read: How To: Adjust Forecasts at Item Level
Freezing a Forecast
Freezing locks in your manual adjustments so they are not replaced by the app’s next automated forecast run.
When to freeze: Freeze a forecast whenever you want your manual changes to remain in place through the next monthly forecast generation cycle.
How to freeze:
Item-level: When you make a manual adjustment, the forecast automatically freezes, indicated by a red snowflake ❄️.
Macro-level: You must manually select the Freeze forecasts button to lock your changes.
Defrosting a Forecast
Defrosting (unfreezing) releases a previously frozen forecast, allowing the app to overwrite your manual adjustments with its next automatically generated forecast.
When to defrost: When the temporary condition that required manual intervention has passed and you want the app to resume automatic forecasting.
How to defrost:
Item-level: Open the Forecast tab of the item’s Inquiry screen and click Defrost. The red snowflake ❄️ disappears once the forecast is active again.
Macro-level: Bulk defrosting is not available directly in the app.
If you have the Advanced Forecasting feature, download the forecast file, replace the User Forecast values with the Computer Forecast, and reupload using the Forecast Upload tool with the overwrite option ticked.
If you do not have Advanced Forecasting, contact Support to request that frozen forecasts be cleared in the back end.
➜ For more on this topic, read: How To: Defrost (Revert) Adjusted Forecasts
Advanced Forecasting
Advanced Forecasting extends your ability to manage complex scenarios efficiently. It includes functionality for multi-item manual adjustments, forecast downloads and uploads, disaggregation, and group-seasonal modeling.
➜ For more on this topic, read: Advanced Forecasting Feature
Extended Planning Horizon
The Extended Planning Horizon provides a 24-month forward view of demand, stock, and replenishment projections. It supports longer-lead-time items and strategic supplier planning.
➜ For more on this topic, read: Extended Planning Horizon Feature
Event Correction
➜ Read: Event Correction
⚠️ Watchouts
Ignoring Market Intelligence: The app cannot automatically account for promotions, new or lost customers, or end-of-life items. Always incorporate this intelligence manually to prevent stockouts or surplus.
Overreacting to Short-Term Variance: Seasonal items naturally fluctuate; avoid adjusting based on one-month anomalies. The system’s seasonal algorithms consider multi-year patterns.
Misinterpreting the Freeze: A frozen but inaccurate forecast can lock in poor ROQs for months. Always review frozen forecasts regularly.
💡 Tips
Manage by Exception: Use the Sales exceeds forecast and Forecast exceeds sales panels on the Forecast screen to identify items needing attention instead of reviewing every item.
Act on In-Month Variance: If significant variance occurs mid-month, the app will not self-correct. Use month-to-date forecast exception reports to identify and address issues early.
Utilize Supersessions for New Items: When replacing an item, use the Supersessions tool to apply the old item’s sales history to the new one. This seeds accurate forecasts immediately.
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