About
Prediction factors in Timetable provide a structured way to estimate how well a student is progressing through a course. Each factor evaluates a different aspect of study behavior, from activity completion to personal learning commitments. These factors are implemented as sub plugins and can be managed globally and configured on course level.
Timetable includes factors based on activity completion as well as factors based on student preferences or profile information.
Note: The prediction factors are already working, but they are still experimental and will be fine-tuned over time.
Progress
The Progress factor measures how many activities with completion tracking a student has finished.
Calculation formula: completed activities with completion tracking divided by all activities with completion tracking.
Examples:
In a course with 20 activities in total and 10 activities with completion enabled:
if a student has not completed any of the 10 activities with completion enabled, the Progress value is 0.
if a student completes 5 of the 10 activities with completion enabled, the Progress value becomes 0.5.
if a student completes all 10 activities with completion enabled, the Progress value becomes 1.
Relevancy
The Relevancy factor measures how many relevant activities a student has completed. Relevant activities are those that count toward course completion.
Calculation formula: completed relevant activities divided by all relevant activities.
Examples:
In a course with 20 activities, 15 trackable activities, and 10 relevant completion criteria:
if a student completes none of the 10 relevant activities, the value is 0 and the status is "not ready".
if a student completes 9 of the 10 relevant activities, the value is 0.9 and the status is "almost ready".
if a student completes all 10 relevant activities, the value is 1 and the status is "ready".
On track
The On track factor compares the number of completed due activities with all activities that have due dates. It does not matter when the activities were completed.
Calculation formula: completed due activities divided by all due activities.
Examples:
In a course with 10 activities that have due dates, of which 6 are already overdue:
if a student has not completed any of the due activities, the value is 0 and the student is not on track
if a student completes 3 of the 6 overdue activities, the value becomes 0.5
if a student completes all 6 overdue activities, the value becomes 1 and the student is on track
Punctuality
The Punctuality factor checks whether activities were completed before their due dates. Late completions do not increase the factor value.
Calculation formula: activities completed before the due date divided by all activities with due dates in the past.
Examples:
In a course where 6 activities have due dates in the past:
if a student completes none of the 6 activities before their due dates, the value is 0 and the student is late
if a student completes 3 of the 6 activities before their due dates, the value becomes 0.5
if a student completes all 6 activities before their due dates, the value becomes 1 and the student is in time
Priority
The Priority factor weights activity completion based on priority. Low priority equals 0.5, normal equals 1, and high equals 2.
Calculation formula: sum of priority weights of completed activities divided by the total priority weight of all trackable activities.
Examples:
In a course with six trackable activities and a total priority weight of 7:
if a student completes none of the activities, the value is 0
if a student completes two low priority activities and one normal priority activity (combined weight 2), the value becomes about 0.28
if a student completes one low and two normal priority activities (combined weight 2.5), the value becomes about 0.35
if a student completes one low and two high priority activities (combined weight 4.5), the value becomes about 0.64
if a student completes all six activities, the value becomes 1
Duration
The Duration factor weights activity completion according to the estimated duration of each activity. Longer activities contribute more.
Calculation formula: duration of completed activities divided by total duration of all trackable activities.
Examples:
In a course where the total duration of all trackable activities is 440 minutes:
if a student completes none of the activities, the value is 0
if a student completes activities with durations of 20, 120, and 120 minutes (combined 260 minutes), the value becomes 0.59
if a student completes all activities, the value becomes 1
Allocated time
The Allocated time factor compares how much time a student plans to invest in the course with how much learning time is still required. This factor is especially important at the beginning of a course when few other indicators are available.
Calculation formula: total time commitment divided by remaining learning time, capped at 1.
Where:
Remaining learning time equals the sum of the duration of all incomplete activities.
Total time commitment equals weekly learning time multiplied by learning speed and the number of weeks remaining.
Examples:
If a student selects 0 hours of weekly study time, the total commitment is 0 and the factor value is 0, which is considered unrealistic.
If a student plans 1 hour per week and the course runs for 6 more weeks, the total commitment is 6 hours. If 10 hours of learning remain, the factor value is 0.6.
Planning 2 hours per week for 6 weeks results in 12 hours of total commitment. If 10 hours remain, the value reaches the cap of 1, which is considered realistic.
In a course where 5 hours of learning remain and the student plans 2 hours per week at a slow learning speed over 4 weeks, the total commitment is 4 hours and the factor value is 0.8.
Increasing the weekly commitment to 2.5 hours under the same conditions results in 5 committed hours, reaching the cap of 1.
Track record
The Track record factor reflects a student’s historical learning performance. It can be configured to use institutional logic or a manual rating.
Calculation formula: depends on the chosen configuration. Common approaches include:
percentage of previously completed courses (on time) divided by all enrolled courses, or
a manually set value between 0 and 1, stored for example in a custom user profile field.
Examples:
If a student has completed none of their previous courses, the factor may be set to 0 based on institutional logic.
A student who has previously completed half of their enrolled courses could receive a value of 0.5.
Institutions may instead choose to maintain a manual performance score, for example assigning a value of 0.8 for a student with a strong track record.