TLDR: The combination of trusted global sources, rigorous quality control, and proprietary enhancements ensures our climate, supply, and trade data is not only accurate but also directly applicable to market forecasting, sourcing decisions, and risk management. This is why companies across trading, procurement, and finance rely on Helios as a single source of truth for agricultural market intelligence.
Climate Data Accuracy
Our raw climate data is sourced from the world’s most trusted meteorological and environmental agencies (including ECMWF, NOAA, NASA, DWD, JMA, BOM, and others), supplemented with maritime, snow, and mesonet data for global coverage. We normalize and adjust all inputs for time zones, reporting inconsistencies, and station reliability.
By combining readings from the three closest valid weather stations—weighted toward the nearest—we create a precise local climate picture. This method ensures the highest possible accuracy for monitoring and forecasting agricultural risks.
Helios boasts an average 91% accuracy rate in catching climate-related supply disruptions. Helios’s backtesting across three commodity classes—pineapples, table grapes, and durum wheat—shows a high detection accuracy:
Commodity/Detection Rate
Pineapple 92.3%
Table grapes 87.1%
Durum wheat 93.6%
These high rates confirm that Helios will flag most real disruptions before they hit markets.
Supply & Trade Data Accuracy
Our supply and trade datasets come primarily from FAO, WITS, and USDA—covering production, yield, harvest, stock, export, and import values globally. When data isn’t available from these official sources, we produce proprietary datasets through targeted research by our in-house team. All figures undergo rigorous cleaning, standardization, and formatting to ensure they’re accurate, comparable, and easy to interpret.
Price Data Accuracy
Helios’ price forecasts are up to five times more accurate than traditional industry models, which have historically relied only on seasonality trends and basic supply/demand figures.
On average, Helios models are 108% more accurate than standard naive and OLS models, with the highest performing model outperforming the naive basis by 565.15%. By integrating climate risk indicators, regional production data, and real-time market signals, we deliver forecasts that help procurement leaders and traders stay ahead of market volatility.
Futures Trading Accuracy
$2.8M in Simulated Profits: A retail investor following Helios CommodiTrack™ signals over four years could have made over $2.8 million in simulated profits with a simple long-only approach—no leverage, just weather-driven trading signals applied to agricultural futures.