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How to Analyse NTB vs Repeat Sales

Understand the economics of new vs repeat customers and identify whether your growth pipeline is healthy.

Your total P&L mixes two fundamentally different economics together: acquiring new customers (typically expensive, low-margin on the first order) and serving loyal repeat customers (typically cheaper, higher-margin). Understanding each separately tells you whether your business model is healthy — and where to invest next.

Step-by-step

  1. Go to Advanced Tools → LTV & Subscriptions

  2. On the Overview page, set your date range to Last 8 Weeks or Last 16 Weeks for a meaningful comparison

  3. Look at the top KPI row. Note: NTB Sales, Repeat Sales, and the percentage change vs. previous period for each

  4. Check the Sales breakdown chart — the orange line is total sales, split visually between NTB and repeat. Look for divergence: if total sales are flat but NTB is declining, you're living off repeat momentum that will run out

  5. Scroll down to the Product-level table. Click on your top product to filter charts to just that ASIN

  6. Now navigate to the Cohort Analysis tab. Under Profit per Customer, look at month 0 (first purchase month): is it positive or negative?

What to look for

Healthy pattern: NTB sales growing or stable, repeat sales growing proportionally. Both lines track upward on the chart.

Watch out for: Repeat sales holding steady while NTB drops. This looks fine on total sales for 6–8 weeks — then repeat drops too as the pipeline empties.

Concerning pattern: NTB is a declining percentage of total sales over multiple months. This signals you're becoming too dependent on your existing base with no new growth.

Tip — benchmark your NTB%: For most growing CPG brands, NTB should represent 40–60% of total sales. Brands in saturated categories or late-stage growth may be lower. Track your own trend over time, not just an industry benchmark.

How to act on the data

If NTB is declining: audit your PPC strategy first (are you cutting acquisition spend?), then check if your market share for non-branded keywords has dropped (use the Market Share & Funnel report). If repeat sales are declining: check your cohort retention curve to see if customers are churning earlier than usual.

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