Climate risk measures how current or forecasted weather conditions differ from what’s considered normal or ideal for crop growth. Each commodity uses its own machine learning model to assess this risk. We look at historical temperature and precipitation information in each particular growing location, region or country and determine a baseline. We then add in our proprietary risk profiles for each commodity (their optimal climate conditions, what affects the crop the most, etc).

Once climate conditions begin to deviate from our historical baseline or are detrimental to the crop, that commodity/location is considered risky.

When we say “Oranges in Brazil have high risk” - we aren’t saying there has been a lot of rain or it’s been too hot in Brazil. We are referring to how climate conditions are unusual and/or not ideal for oranges in Brazil. If we were to look at a different crop in the same exact location, climate risk would be different.

Climate risk provides early insight into yield and production outcomes. Sustained or extreme spikes in climate risk often precede yield losses, reports of lower quality goods, supply reductions, and price volatility. By tracking climate risk, Helios users can anticipate market reactions, adjust forecasts, and make more informed pricing and procurement decisions.

Climate risk draws from current, historical, and forecasted data on temperature and rainfall, along with growing season phases and climate patterns from the past decade.

We calculate climate risk using the Weighted Average Percentage of Risk (WA%R). This metric compares the number of high-risk growing regions to the total number, giving more weight to major production or export zones.

Climate risk is always broken down into a “risk driver”: why it was considered risky. They include:

Helios offers climate risk forecasting and historical climate risk information for all commodities. Currently, CommodiTrack shows daily climate & risk metrics for the past year and forecasts for the upcoming year. Our metrics are available for all growing locations, regions, countries, and even globally per commodity.

Helios provides growing season analysis for all individual growing locations, as well as at a region, country, and global level. Available for the current and upcoming growing seasons, it can be accessed via CommodiTrack Climate Tab, our reports, or Helios Horizon for a more detailed analysis.

Some Key Analysis Metrics: