Yes—our case studies document early, actionable warnings that preceded well-publicized price spikes and supply shocks.
For cocoa, Helios flagged escalating heat and drought in West Africa starting January 2024; our WA%R (weighted average percent of risk) index peaked Feb–Apr, while the media discussed the surge weeks later and prices subsequently hit a 25-year high—demonstrating WA%R’s value as a leading indicator rather than a coincident one. The PDF notes that customers were able to anticipate the major price shift and adjust procurement ahead of competitors.
On coffee, Helios detected drought stress in Vietnam’s Central Highlands early; WA%R jumped from 23% to 63% in seven days and prices surged to multi-decade highs, giving users a head start on inventory and hedging decisions.
The pattern repeats across other crops and geographies:
U.S. corn risk climbed to ~50% in September 2024, and the platform issued a clear “BUY—prices expected to increase soon based on climate factors” signal weeks before broader reports; the case study highlights Iowa/Illinois spikes above 60% WA%R and the subsequent price rise.
For Mexican lemons, Helios identified drought conditions in Michoacán as early as November 2023—ten months before prices rose ~50% and eight months before the media—letting buyers lock in supply earlier.
We also warned on Moroccan mandarins months before shortages and higher prices, and on Argentine pears at the season’s start, enabling sourcing pivots before public coverage of the drought. Taken together, these studies show Helios signals lead to observable market stress and translate into measurable procurement and budgeting advantages.